The rise of services prompts developing countries to look beyond manufacturing-led exports and enable productivity growth across the economic system.

Service exports, now representing 25% of world trade, offer a bright spot amid a subdued global economic outlook.

In 2023, trade in services expanded by 5% in real terms, contrasting a 1.2% contraction in merchandise trade, according to the Trade and Development Report 2024.

As a development strategy, services are gaining more traction than manufacturing, a longstanding growth engine for middle-income countries.

“This is largely because the comparative advantage of cheaper, less-skilled labour no longer aligns with the reliance of modern manufacturing on skill- and capital-intensive production,” the report notes.

“Additionally, industrialization is increasingly scrutinized for its large ecological footprint and contributions to climate change.”

North-South gap risks widening

The dawn of a service economy could be a game changer for developing countries, but not without challenges.

Currently, developing economies account for under 30% of global services export revenues and 44% of merchandise trade.

With services and intangible assets – such as brands, designs and patented technologies – getting prominence in global value chains, asymmetries between developed and developing regions could worsen.

Market concentration in the creative services trade is a case in point. In 2022, creative services were valued at $1.4 trillion, four fifths of which came from developed countries.

The predominance also manifests in the geography of multinational firms providing international services.

In 2022, 70% of these companies were headquartered in developed regions, compared to just 10% in developing ones excluding China.

Recalibrating development strategies

Current trade in services cannot generate enough quality jobs in developing countries, urging an ambitious policy mix towards green transition and promoting labour-absorbing activities, especially in the non-tradable services sectors.

Some examples can be construction, retail, various types of care work as well as the personal and public sectors that provide services consumed locally in the country or region where they are produced.

A three-pronged strategy could focus on:

• Encouraging lower-skill job creation by larger firms in non-tradable services.
• Providing public inputs and access to productivity-enhancing investments for smaller enterprises.
• Investing in technologies that complement, rather than replace, low-skilled workers in the services sectors.