The global copper industry is entering a pivotal phase – one not only requiring more production, but also smarter, more inclusive and technologically driven growth strategies.
© Shutterstock/ Anna Kucherova | Skouriotissa, Cyprus, where copper mining dates back nearly 4,000 years.
Global demand set to rise 40% by 2040, but supply remains under strain
China dominates the processing of many critical minerals
Developing countries risk missing out on value-added opportunities if they remain limited to raw material exports
Smarter trade policies, investment, and recycling are needed to close the gap
A looming copper shortfall could stall the world’s shift to clean energy and digital infrastructure, warns UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its latest Global Trade Update published on 6 May. The report calls copper the “new strategic raw material” “in the new green and digital economy” and a test case for how global trade systems handle resource pressures under strain.
Copper is essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy, artificial-intelligence infrastructure, data centres and smart grids. Yet supply isn’t keeping up. Global demand is set to rise over 40% by 2040, but low ore grades, geopolitical risks and long development timelines – up to 25 years for new mines – pose structural challenges. Meeting projected needs would require 80 new mines and $250 billion in investment by 2030.
Resource-rich nations export raw copper, miss value-added gains
More than half of global copper reserves lie in just five countries, namely Australia, Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Russian Federation. But most of the value is added elsewhere. China now imports 60% of global copper ore and produces over 45% of refined copper.
UNCTAD finds that many resource-rich countries are stuck at the bottom of the value chain, exporting raw materials but unable to industrialize. Tariff escalation – from under 2% duties on refined copper to up to 8% on other finished products like sheets and wires – can discourage upgrading.
Most major copper exporters also fall below the global average in economic complexity, underscoring the need for investment in infrastructure, skills and targeted trade policy.
“Copper is no longer just a commodity – it’s a strategic asset,” said Luz María de la Mora, Director of UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and Commodities.
“Its market exposes the power asymmetries that still shape global trade. That’s why we need to invest in local value addition, scale up recycling and remove trade barriers that limit opportunity. This is a moment where all countries can win – if trade is made to work for development.”
Recycling now supplies 1 in 5 tonnes of copper
In 2023, 4.5 million tons – nearly 20% of global refined copper – came from secondary sources. The United States, Germany and Japan are top scrap exporters, while China, Canada and the Republic of Korea lead on imports.
For developing countries, copper recycling is a strategic opportunity. Building local capacity can reduce import dependence, lower emissions and support circular-economy practices to protect the environment and use resources more efficiently.
Copper is a test case for future trade strategy
The report argues that copper is a test case for managing critical materials amid global trade tensions, fragmented supply chains and shifting industrial policies. These risks reflect the broader slowdown and uncertainty UNCTAD has cautioned against.
UNCTAD urges smarter trade and industrial strategies – streamlined permitting, reduced tariffs, regional value chains – to help developing countries move up the value chain and share more equitably in the energy and tech transformations.