Trade and innovation have driven growth, but mounting climate risks, weak governance and underinvestment threaten the sector’s future and the lives of 600 million people worldwide.
The ocean economy has grown 2.5 times since 1995, outpacing the global average.
In 2023, trade in ocean goods and services hit record highs of $899 billion and $1.3 trillion, respectively, highlighting the growing importance of marine activities for coastal and island nations. Fisheries alone now sustain 600 million people living mostly in developing countries.
Importantly, South-South trade is surging. From 2021 to 2023, fish (primary) exports rose 43% to $19 billion, while processed fish exports jumped 89% to $23 billion.
Meanwhile, the ocean remains largely unexplored, with up to two-thirds of marine species still unidentified, offering vast potential. The marine biotechnology market, estimated at $4.2 billion in 2023, is set to reach $6.4 billion by 2025, driven by low-carbon marine foods, new antibiotics, and bio-based materials.
But climate change, pollution, overfishing, regulatory gaps, and underinvestment threaten the sector’s future.
Climate change and the shipping challenge
2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels (exceeding the critical 1.5°C threshold). Warmer ocean waters disrupt marine ecosystems, harm fish populations, shrink harvests and threaten food security – especially for coastal communities.
The risks extend to maritime trade. Rising seas and drought threaten ports and shipping routes, while extreme weather delays shipments and inflates insurance costs.
Shipping, responsible for 2.9% of global emissions, faces an annual decarbonization cost of $8 billion to $28 billion, plus up to $90 billion for infrastructure upgrades. The International Maritime Organization’s 2023 greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy sets ambitious targets, but progress is slow. Low-carbon fuels remain costly, ports lack infrastructure, a lack of coordination on alternative fuels hinders investments, and developing economies struggle to finance the transition.
Yet most national climate plans leave out the ocean economy. Without urgent action, climate change will undermine both the ocean economy and global trade.
Data deficit holds back action
The ocean economy accounts for 11% of global CO2 emissions, yet no comprehensive dataset tracks emissions across key sectors.
Coastal and marine tourism alone contribute 4% of global emissions, but official data is patchy. Shipping, offshore oil and fisheries are better documented, but other industries like ports and shipbuilding remain largely left out of global carbon assessments.
Expanding the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Ocean Trade Database and FAO fishery statistics could help close critical gaps.
Trade: Unlocking potential by removing barriers
High tariffs and non-tariff barriers limit the potential of South-South trade in fisheries. Developing economies apply average tariffs of 14% on fish products among themselves – far higher than the 3.2% in high-income countries.
The Global System of Trade Preferences (GSTP) – a $16 trillion market between 42 developing countries – could help boost trade by lowering tariffs among developing countries and enhancing cooperation.
Meanwhile, exports of marine-based non-plastic substitutes, such as seaweed and silicates, amounted to just $10.8 billion in 2022 – 1% of global plastic exports. Growth is held back by high tariffs, outdated regulations and trade barriers. The UN’s plastic pollution treaty, now under negotiation, could help unlock this market by facilitating trade and supporting innovation in natural, sustainably sourced marine-based inputs.
An ocean economy starved of investment
Despite its scale, the ocean economy remains woefully underfunded. In 2022, global ocean-related financing totalled less than $3 billion – a fraction of what is needed.
Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 14 (life below water) requires $175 billion annually, yet only $30 billion has been disbursed since 2010, making it the most underfunded goal.
Meanwhile, the global fishing industry receives an estimated $22 billion in harmful subsidies, fuelling overfishing. Redirecting these funds and expanding blended finance mechanisms could help close the gap.
What must change?
The ocean economy is at a turning point. To ensure it grows sustainably and inclusively, five actions are urgently needed:
- Integrate ocean-based sectors into national climate and biodiversity plans to accelerate adaptation and improve resilience.
- Finalize the legally binding treaty on plastic pollution to cut waste and enable marine-based material use.
- Reduce trade barriers to boost South-South fisheries and aquaculture trade.
- Expand data collection on ocean-related emissions, trade and investment.
- End harmful subsidies and scale up financing, leveraging public and private funds.
With the 5th UN Ocean Forum (March) and 2025 UN Ocean Conference (June) approaching, policymakers need to act now. The ocean economy’s future depends on it.